“Health care delivery will be revolutionized by 1990, with most large metropolitan areas having implemented vertically-integrated health
facilities coordinated by computer… [including] physicians’ offices, neighborhood health care centers, hospitals, university medical centers,
nursing homes, rehabilitation centers and home health care.” - a quote from 1978 by Gideon Gartner, one of the godfathers of the market
research industry which I found in a Forbes article from December 2014. A failed prediction
so far… But not to worry. End of the year or start of the year we get flooded with predictions; of course, healthcare could not avoid this
pandemic. Some are your garden variety common sense predictions and bring nothing new to the table. Others are way too speculative to bring
anything of value to the table... We have compiled a list of what we think is more than common sense but more than simple fantasy (in order
of probability): mobile healthcare, proactive healthcare paradigm shift, physician extenders and gene mapping.
Today we talk about the not-so-futuristic DNA mapping.
Gene mapping: knowing the user manual*
In a BigThink short video interview posted about a year ago, Dr. Eric Green (the director of the National Human Genome Research Institute) shows that the cost of DNA sequencing is decreasing at such a rate that when first human genome sequence was completed ten years ago it did cost a billion dollars; whereas now we can sequence a human genome in a matter of 24 to 48 hours at cost of less than ten thousand dollars. Even less, actually, if you are willing to wait for a week. While, not accessible to everyone and not covered by insurance, experts say that if the cost drops lower still - let’s say several hundred dollars - the healthcare sector will definitely adopt this a preventive measure. And as you can see in the image displayed above (reproduced from the PwC December report), US consumers are willing to pay for such testing out of their own pockets if the price is right.
What do you think of this prediction? Send us the probability you will assign for it happen and will publish it below. 10%? 50% ?100%? Let us know!
Posting comment as guest.
If you already have an account, please LOGIN.
If not, you may consider creating on. It’s FREE!